Degree

Master of Science in Engineering (MSE)

Department

Civil Engineering

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

Accurately identifying socially vulnerable populations at-risk of flooding is critical for equitable disaster mitigation and planning. This study investigates how the selection of design storm method, which is fundamental to developing flood risk maps used for this identification, influences which socially vulnerable populations are recognized as being at elevated flood risk. The most widely used design storm approach relies on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 point-based rainfall frequency estimates. These estimates are typically applied spatially using areal reduction factors, thereby disregarding rainfall spatial variability in real storms. Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST), an alternative design storm approach that accounts for rainfall spatial variability, is evaluated. The study area is the Vermilion River Watershed (VRW) in southern Louisiana, which has historically experienced significant flooding. Flood simulations were conducted using a 2D hydrodynamic model driven by (a) 100-year Atlas 14-based and (b) 100-year SST-based design storms. Social vulnerability and flood exposure were combined to produce a composite flood risk score, enabling comparison between approaches. Results indicate that flood inundation extent is greater under SST compared to Atlas 14. While many areas are identified as high flood risk under both methods, SST reveals additional high-risk areas not identified under uniform rainfall assumptions. Inclusion of these areas increases the population exposed to high flood risk by 39.5% (approximately 14,000 people) and are associated with moderate to very high social vulnerability. These findings illustrate that uniform rainfall assumptions may underestimate flood risk extent and overlook vulnerable populations requiring mitigation and planning support.

Date

2-6-2026

DOI

https://proquest.com/docview/3347849819

First Committee Chair

Emad Habib

First Committee Member

Mohamed ElSaadani

Second Committee Member

Robert Miller

Third Committee Member

Selena Hinojos

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